Sunday, October 15, 2017

How President Crump has won.



I have my Facebook friends completely confused when I talk US politics.
One asked:
"Do you think RINOs helped nominate Trump because they thought he was least likely to win against Hillary?"

No I think Reince Priebus and the RINO's were trying to block Ted Cruz and the Freedom Caucus at all costs. They used Trump to block Cruz but then failed to organise someone to topple Trump at the convention via the second or third vote strategy. They tried to manipulate the convention and its rules but botched it.
Their candidates Jeb Bush and John Kasich were no match for Hillary. In simple terms they believed their own propaganda about Bush and Kasich and believed the lefts propaganda about Hillary beating conservatives like Ted Cruz and I doubt they really thought it though with Trump until Jeb Bush dropped out. At the convention they blocked Ted but had no-one else to go with as a candidate from the floor. Romney and several others turned the plotters down. Anyone inclined to accept was clearly un-electable.

So they switched to plan B get Trump elected and controlling him. I don't think they expected Hillary to win. She had lost the rust belt to Trump and the black vote was lost to Facebook history memes of the KKK democrat party connections. The black vote stayed home. To get Trump to a winning number on the first vote they transferred votes from Bush and Kasich to Trump without telling the delegates or Trump. Ted Cruz had the numbers to force it to a second vote and would have won the second convention vote. That was unacceptable to some at the convention.

Ted Cruz saw Reince Priebus control of Trump coming. He also saw the great danger of Hillary winning in the south east and south west where Trump was weakest but in those areas Ted Cruz was much stronger so he passed almost all of his campaign personnel to Trump. He also seems to have passed all his cabinet picks and maybe his VP pick, Mike Pence, to Trump creating an unbeatable machine in the election. Kellyanne Conway was added to the mix to keep things organised. She was a Cruz organiser and fund raiser.

Then once back in the Senate Ted Cruz and the Freedom Caucus  launched a policy blitz beating Priebus out of the White house. As the battle for Obamacare repeal and replace progressed Priebus was blocking the Freedom caucus and other conservatives from getting to Trump. The RINO's that backed and wanted to control Trump actually do not have any viable alternative policies. They have never articulated policy to achieve Trumps goals or their own. The freedom caucus is clear and public in terms of goals and policy.

Instead of fighting Trump the freedom caucus is trying to find ways to make the results Trump articulated policy work. That is why the wall is a fence in places. They already knew, as do Trump supporters, that the key is enforcement and that the guards need to be able to see through the wall in most places. Priebus recommendations failed repeatedly, while Cruz had got working people and policies in where it mattered. Eventually Reince Priebus had to leave beaten. 

So what about Steve Bannon?
Steve Bannon and also Newt Gingrich and Pat Buchanan were all on board with Trump early. I suspect that they all sounded out Ted Cruz and a few others in 2014 but Cruz, Rand Paul and others Libertarian favoring caucus members would not go along with all of their plans.
Bannon, Gingrich, Buchanan want protectionism to be the banner but a different kind of protectionism than the 1930's and 1960's. All conservatives Cruz wants real free trade not fake free trade but he is not willing to threaten protectionism to get it. The catch is that without threats of protectionism your going into a trade negotiation empty handed and naked. [No you can't do free trade by simple declaration as the libertarians want to. ] Trump understood the need to threaten protectionism to get true free trade so they backed Trump.

I think Cruz (and Newt) also understands that some industries are truly obsolete and will never return and that's is a real problem for the percentage of people in those dying fields that genuinely can't be retrained.

The past six months all five men have learned that they will have to converge their positions creating a more nuanced program of policies. If they can't do that they wont get a policies though.

Bannon has not been kicked out of the White house. He has realized that the problem is not the committees in the White house. Attending meetings is point less if you discover that the committee all agrees yet the government genuinely can't do some things even with full control of both houses and the White house.

It needs to be not just take a majority in congress. You must obliterate the Democrats and the RINO's AND 30 million bureaucrats that will not implement policy even when ordered to. (That's a big unreported story).

In that you need a permanent campaign mode and so Bannon has been redeployed where he can do the most good at Breitbart.
Bannon is not a libertarian or CATO type conservative so he still disagrees with Ted Cruz and Rand Paul on things. And Cruz and Paul differ to. Like me he probably thinks that such things will work but that we simply can't sell them. This was always Ted's problem you can't talk complex policy in a pub. Newt has the same problem. Unintelligible policy wonks might be right but can't win if no-one understands a word their saying. Trump simply does not try.

In the next months we will see people aligned to both Trump and Cruz running against incumbent RINO's that face re election in 2018. There will also be people running against the most vulnerable Democrats in the Rust belt. The DNC gerrymandered those blue collar districts to hold them half a century ago but with the blue collar vote flipping to Trump they guaranteed they will now loose them.

Watch the southern black districts too. A new generation of black Republicans are running there and the same memes that broke Hillary's grip in 2016 will now switching up to the next stages pointing out that Marx, Lenin, Andrew Jackson and Lyndon B. Johnson were not black and that Frederick Douglass, the first black congressmen and Martin Luther King jr were all Republicans. The democrats ae not being helped by black lives matter crowds with marxist banners or KKK activily reminding everyone that they were once called the "the military arm of the Democratic Party". These things are piling up and will drive a disconnect between socialism and black rights. It will happen very fast without warning and the DNC can only afford to loose 10% of the black vote to loose half the south perminantly.

The Democrats have lost the old industrial states on the great lakes. The left is losing its grip on the black vote. The LGBT block is tiny; vocal but not enough to matter and Harvey Weinstein has blown up half the feminist vote and most of the Hollywood lobby. The party may even die!


The RINO's, called the Tuesday group in congress, are a policy free zone. Out of ideas. They are pro-military and pro-police but left of center or clueless on everything else. They will face conservatives in their primaries. They will be forced to shift or loose well before November 2018.
We will get President Crump. Policy Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, etc signed into law by Trump to achieve his agenda because there is no other way.

PS technically everyone's kicked out of the White house, not just Bannon, because their doing maintenance. No one is reporting where the National Security Council meetings are being held while they rip the wiretaps out of the Oval office.  

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Udajeet

A star gate ship model. 
The Udajeet. This is the single seat death glider from the movie. Very fiddly curves.



The colours are royal purple, priestly purple, sky blue, silver and black. These are place holder materials. It has no weapons because someone else has made the weapons already.


There are differences with the movie version. However there are differences within the shots. It seems that top rail is close to the hull in one shot and farther out in another. Probably green screen artefacts.


The back wing edges are not perfectly straight but you barely see that in the movie.


Do the Goa'ald even have a word for landing gear?



Inside of the cockpit. Almost steam punk controls. This is very much simplified. The modeller went mad with greebles. 
  

In some movie shots the model looks grey or blue so the colours show this is clearly Ra's personal Udajeet.
More progress with the udajeet. 





Sunday, May 21, 2017

Friday, March 24, 2017

4 memes showing the anarchist vacuum

4 memes showing the anarchist vacuum.
Someone posted this on Facebook:

It is very very libertarian but it is sadly wrong. The anarchist vacuum problem. No safeguards.
I fixed it making another version.
Yes its more complicated but that's the point. The free market is not a void or a magic fairy or even an invisible hand. We can't predict all the out comes but we can identify some of the known mechanisms.  

Then later in another facebook discussion a similar one was added:
Without government, who would provide _________?


 It does not deal with the fundamental reasons for taxation in the first place, the assurance problem. So I fixed that one too.


In both cases anarchists are attempting to replace something with nothing. Generating huge risks and making their policy positions unsaleable to the majority of voters. 

I have yet to find a good one on foreign policy. When I do I'll fix it and add it.


Saturday, January 14, 2017

Trumpism 101

Trumpism 101

Trump tweets something insane early in the morning.

Social media explodes.

The left explodes and calls Trump fascist!

The MSM makes sure everyone reads the tweet by the morning news and points out how dangerous it is.

The left is still busy swearing at Trump.

Conservative and libertarian sites point out that Trump's plan will fail and points out their solution.

Legislation miraculously matching the conservatarian solution promptly shows up pre-drafted in congress.

They vote, it passes. Trump signs on the same day.

The Democrats and RINO's go on CNN to proudly announce that they have dodged the bullet and have blocked Trump.

The left goes WTF just happened??? They're still looking for the text of the legislation.
The libertarians say "no far that's our policy from 1990!" They're right.

A few people like me talk about moved goal posts and bait and switch tactics. It's our turn now.

Trump and his advisers go over their list of 'spontaneous' tweets for next week. 

Wednesday, July 06, 2016

Bypassing Lynch.

Has James Comey just bypassed Lynch and Obama in one fell swoop? By outlining the evidence, showing she is guilty and then saying he was not going ahead with a recommendation of a charge. He has booked himself an appointment with congress. Several congressmen have contacted him. This completely by passes the Justice department, Loretta Lynch and the whole Obama administration.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/06/us/politics/hillary-clinton-fbi-email-comey.html?_r=1

This has resulted members of the House and Senate Judiciary committee calling within minutes. Jason Chaffetz has already set up meetings.
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/jason-chaffetz-testofy-james-comey-fbi/2016/07/05/id/737207/


There is no precedent for impeaching an ex government officer but by setting it up as an enquiry into the Comey statement he has created a situation where he, Comey, the other FBI staff, can speak freely in public and Hillary and her staff can be called by congress under oath.

Note this is the house committee not the Senate where it may be seen as in conflict because Ted Cruz is still in the running for Republican presidential nominee. Cruz of course has demanded all the evidence be made available to congress. This means the James Comey can't hand over originals to the Justice department. Loretta Lynch has openly said she would rather shred the files rather than prosecute her friend Hillary.

If Comey had recommended a prosecution then Lynch could have killed the case within hours or days. Well before the Democratic party convention and the election. By openly redefining the law he forces congress to act and puts the case into the highest courtroom avaliable, congress itself.

The question of intent becomes the the key subject of debate and that goes directly to the question of motivation, Hillarys, Huma Abedin, and other staff. Why was it convenient to go outside the secure systems? Why did they consistently refuse offers to secure their systems; both the servers and the blackberries? We all know the reasons that Hillary had? Freedom of information requests. An illegal reason. There may be another reason. Huma Abedin has family ties to the moslem brotherhood. Some think that the server was setup and data moved to it for the sole purpose of that data being hacked.

Lynch and Obama want the server case cleared and forgotten. This kills any chance of that happening. A congressional enquiry will be broadcast worldwide. Keeping the case alive and ensuring that in the end the congress itself can call a Grand Jury over Lynch's head. While the case is live Hillary is damaged. The left don't care, they don't know anything about classification and hate FOI except when a Republican is in the White house.

However the hard left is not enough to elect a democrat to any post they need independants. This will mean those independents will continue to stay away in droves. It means if Trump fails to seal the nomination and it's Ted Cruz in november Hillery may see millions of independents switch to him as an honest and hardworking alternative.




Saturday, May 28, 2016

Why Trump will lose in Cleveland.

Trump is relying on bound delegates to win but those arguing that the binding of delegates is disallowed in the party are now organized and publishing all the details. The Binding wording added in 2012 to block Ron Paul is now being exposed as only really valid for the 2012 convention and is up for revision in the first hours of the rules committee.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/26/trump-hasnt-closed-the-deal-gop-delegates-still-decide-who-the-nominee-will-be-commentary.html It also did not work, see below.

Curly Haugland is fighting hard against bound candidates. The PDF linked to in the above link is free.

In simple terms it argues that a change in the wording of the rules was the dirty truck of 2012 and almost no one today supports it except Trump. Trump does not have the numbers in the rules committees and all delegates are unbound in the rules votes with Cruz way past 50% in those votes. This is why Cruz has persisted in getting his delegates into any vacant Trump spots. The Pledges on the first votes are unenforceable. They contradict all previous versions of the RNC rules except the 1976 one that was revoked in 1980.

The parties are private entities not governments. Corporate rules apply and the courts have confirmed the difference every time.
Also it's not been confirmed that over 17 Ron Paul supporters in the Nevada's delegation, 2012 republican convention, did not vote their pledge to Romney. They did not have the numbers but were not penalized and their floor vote, sans pledge, was fully recorded as a Ron Paul vote. That was the majority of the Nevada's delegation beaching their pledge in 2012. It never even made the news did it?

The election is in November the caucuses are not elections. Under American law they are all beauty contests and always were.

Trump keeps running foul of the residency rule in many states. A delegate must be a resident of the district that he or she represents. Here is the Clause for California. "What are the requirements for being a delegate? You must be a registered Republican and a resident of the Congressional District you are representing. You must attend the Delegation Meeting on Saturday, June 25, 2016 near LAX. You must commit to vote for the presidential candidate by whom you are selected." https://www.cagop.org/national-delegation/

In some cases Trump has either not found anyone or has not even submitted a list of prospective delegates. Note the last line "...by whom you are selected." If trump has not submitted the names then what does that wording mean?

Even rolling stone gets the implications. http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-zombie-ted-cruz-already-beat-trump-in-washington-20160524 "It is exactly the kind of thing Trump -- back when he still had a rival for the nomination -- would have railed against as evidence the system is "rigged" against his bid. But it's not part of an establishment conspiracy to snatch the nomination from under him; it's just embarrassing proof that team Trump has failed to execute some of the most basic functions required of a competitive presidential campaign. " ... "Cruz was able to win the vast majority of the Washington delegates because, when his campaign still existed, staffers put together lists of their preferred delegates -- a state convention voters' guide. The Trump campaign (and the Kasich camp, for that matter) didn't perform this extremely basic task. "I never saw a slate for Trump candidates," Crabtree says."
           You dance with the guy that brung you.

Trump is conspicuously silent on this and it has happened in all of the west coast states. He either does not understand the process or is not intending to win but is taking that act all the way so as to leave Ted Cruz the only man standing. I still can't tell which. This failure to get delegates lined up, even after being called in by Reince Priebus for a lecture on the point, does not help Hillary Clinton it only helps Ted Cruz.

In the 12th district of California; Central San Francisco, Nancy Pelosi's district, Trump is allocated Peter Thiel a known libertarian and past Cruz supporter, House majority leader Kevin McCarthy, former House committee chairman Darrell Issa and congressman Duncan Hunter Jr. There is no way Trump came up with that list. They are bound but How can the RNC sanction a billionaire and two sitting congressmen for not voting their pledge?
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/10/peter-thiel-paypal-co-founder-to-be-delegate-for-donald-trump


Cruz may beat Trump without the pledged delegate question. California is "winner take most" the worst worded electoral jargon on planet earth. In reality the state is proportional but at the district level. The winner of each district takes all 3 delegates but if Cruz gets 14 districts Trump is blocked at 1236. Trump only got 60% in Oregon unopposed.

This map is useful it shows how California's districts votes. As Gary North says go and vote against the Tax and bond propositions (even anarchist got to the polls to vote against these things). This is one of the best indicators of political positions. Personalities and political popularity is not in play in such a vote. Proposition was a special tax to pay for education (teachers inflated pensions) in bankrupt California. It failed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_30,_2012#/media/File:CA2012Prop30-NoColor.svg

Yes Associated Press says Trump already has 1239 but they are assuming California is Winner take all and they are surveying unpledged delegates without saying who, what question they're asking and when they did the survey.

Some think that if Trump loses at the convention there will be a backlash with Trump supporters however that does not work out either. We have seen record turnout at the primaries but Trump has only got 30 to 40 % of the vote. That means that 60 - 70 % of that massive turn out was there to oppose him. It's bigger than the total November 2012 republican vote. The christian conservatives are activated. Only a percentage of Trump supporters will stay home.

The religious people supporting him tend to be new-age Pentecostals powered by dodgy prophesies. A prompt re-interpretation of the vision follows every such folly.

In other words people will vote this time around. If Cruz wins at the convention the huge collective sigh of relief will result in people that would not have supported him six months ago would support him. Even the View TV show that cut Trump off mid sentence would have Cruz gladly as a replacement. He has proved that he has the people and the organization for a campaign.

If the financial crisis hit Cruz's first term he will take it and use it to push through the reforms that are needed. Any one else would just take damage and make the crisis deeper. The anti-Cruz members of the republican party will not be able to attack the man that faced down Trump.

I don't expect to be believed. However if I am right you will be the one person in the room that will understand what just happened! God is in control. He needs no organizing committees to set things up. If I am right he is putting someone in place, a Goldwater republican, to take the coming crisis and turn them into reform.