Wednesday, May 04, 2016

Republican fun and chaos.

Now the real fun starts.

Ted Cruz has withdrawn. Trump will have 1237 at the republican convention at Cleveland next month.

I was of the opinion that Trump was running a decoy campaign for Cruz. I still think that that was part of someone's plan but it went wrong. I don't think Trump or Cruz were involved. Look for someone Trump has sidelined.

Trump has to fight Hillary but with what? Hillary is an easy scandal ridden candidate but has Trump been paying attention? All the attacks on her have already been made.

Now that Trump is only battling Kasich can he round on Kasich's history, background and policies? Again does he know them? Do they differ enough from his positions?

The greatest danger to Trump is always Trump. He has a month to go and plenty of opportunities to foul up.
Also now that Cruz is out of the picture, or so it seems, the media that has been supportive of Trump, because they hate Cruz's Christian conservatism, are now freed up to try and destroy Trump. And you know that the NeverTrump people will not let up.

Before it gets to the first vote Ted Cruz still has hundreds of delegates that are obligated to vote for Trump but who were banking on it being a hung first vote. What do they do now? If Trump stuffs up further some may decide to do the unthinkable at the first vote; Abstain.

Technically this means they have resigned and they could gladly and loudly do so. That is why all states have alternates. These alternates will step up to an unprecedented second First Vote. Some may vote and some may again abstain. Whole state delegations may take a stand.

Yes it would trigger a brawl, a genuine fist fight and the genuine risk of ending the republican political party. It would be an active decision by some to kick off and run another party by 2020, this year is not possible. A new conservative republican party for 2020. Would it win. No but it may get seats in some state houses. We will see thousands going over to the libertarians.

As several people have pointed out the US Two party system was always a coalition of multiple micro parties mistaken for factions. It only retained its position because other parties were blocked from registering and getting on the voter rolls and ballot papers. However the libertarians destroyed that barrier in all states a few years ago.

Trump would win on the second first vote but even that will be disputed by some because a second first vote is a contradiction. Some will say that the resignations on a first vote makes the next vote the second vote with freed delegates. Even Reince Priebus would be battling for order right beside Trump against that idea. It may come down to Cruz taking the microphone as conciliator. That would work but it would also speak much. Remember the thing will be watched by billions this year.

If no resignations occur Trump will be the nominee and the question will turn to the vice president vote. Rule 40 comes into play if they are still on the books.

Here it is in full. Read it carefully.
(a) In making the nominations for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States and voting thereon, the roll of the states shall be called separately in each case; provided, however, that if there is only one candidate for nomination for Vice President of the United States who has demonstrated the support required by paragraph (b) of this rule, a motion to nominate for such office by acclamation shall be in order and no calling of the roll with respect to such office shall be required.
(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business.
(c) The total time of the nominating speech and seconding speeches for any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States shall not exceed fifteen (15) minutes.
(d) When at the close of a roll call any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States has received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention, the chairman of the convention shall announce the votes for each candidate whose name was presented in accordance with the provisions of paragraph (b) of this rule. Before the convention adjourns sine die, the chairman of the convention shall declare the candidate nominated by the Republican Party for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States.
(e) If no candidate shall have received such majority, the chairman of the convention shall direct the roll of the states be called again and shall repeat the calling of the roll until a candidate shall have received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention.

This means that Cruz is the only Vice President Trump can name on the day. Cruz has been the only person that Trump has ever talked about. Few people can think of an alternative.

This also means that if Trump is to pick any one else he and Cruz must co-operate in the rules committee to get that rule scrapped on day one. This problem would have excluded Carly Fiorina too. Yet Trumps people will see rule 40 as essential to block Kasich or anyone John Boehner likes. Oh what a wonderful corner the party has painted itself into.

It gets Better. The law was designed to block Ron Paul from any post but the Ron Paul delegates got angry and, then got organised and, now have a significant position on the rules committee. As semi libertarians they care about the issues than the party. As mostly tea party people (Paul), Trump and Cruz rules delegates see this as an outsider versus insiders battle. Tea party versus Rino not Trump versus Cruz.

Trump and Cruz have fought hard, very hard. Could too much damage have been done? Possibly but remember Ronald Reagan and George H Bush fought very hard too in 1980. Yet they teamed up. Most don't know that John Adams was the first Vice President and he ran against George Washington not with him. He was what in most other political systems would be called the leader of the opposition in the Vice President post. He hated it!

Would Cruz say no? It will be hard to say either thing. The questions will be: Can I tame this man? Who better to tame a lawless man than a lawyer that topped all his classes.
Will I lose all chances of running later if Trump or Hillary wins and I'm on the side lines?
Would America survive Trump or Hillary and still be intact in 2020?
Or will I be a guaranteed the presidency if Trump gets bored, impeached or just shot?
Would Trump run for a second term? That is highly unlikely.
How much damage to my reputation can I take and can I blame Rule 40b?
If Trump names someone really stupid that will make Ted Cruz's decision for him; 60-80% will demand him citing the rule.

As I said it's not really one factionalised party any more it's three or four jammed into a box called RNC. The same is emerging in the DNC too. The hard left, students and teachers, socialist faction is backing Bernie. While the wall street left, many Muslim lobby groups and a gaggle of aging feminists and LGBT activists are backing Hillary. The age of political fission is upon us.

It will be a hell of a show. Thankfully God is in control. It will be a day of Judgement but will it be judgement on the country or just the party? We shall see.

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