Saturday, May 28, 2016

Why Trump will lose in Cleveland.

Trump is relying on bound delegates to win but those arguing that the binding of delegates is disallowed in the party are now organized and publishing all the details. The Binding wording added in 2012 to block Ron Paul is now being exposed as only really valid for the 2012 convention and is up for revision in the first hours of the rules committee. It also did not work, see below.

Curly Haugland is fighting hard against bound candidates. The PDF linked to in the above link is free.

In simple terms it argues that a change in the wording of the rules was the dirty truck of 2012 and almost no one today supports it except Trump. Trump does not have the numbers in the rules committees and all delegates are unbound in the rules votes with Cruz way past 50% in those votes. This is why Cruz has persisted in getting his delegates into any vacant Trump spots. The Pledges on the first votes are unenforceable. They contradict all previous versions of the RNC rules except the 1976 one that was revoked in 1980.

The parties are private entities not governments. Corporate rules apply and the courts have confirmed the difference every time.
Also it's not been confirmed that over 17 Ron Paul supporters in the Nevada's delegation, 2012 republican convention, did not vote their pledge to Romney. They did not have the numbers but were not penalized and their floor vote, sans pledge, was fully recorded as a Ron Paul vote. That was the majority of the Nevada's delegation beaching their pledge in 2012. It never even made the news did it?

The election is in November the caucuses are not elections. Under American law they are all beauty contests and always were.

Trump keeps running foul of the residency rule in many states. A delegate must be a resident of the district that he or she represents. Here is the Clause for California. "What are the requirements for being a delegate? You must be a registered Republican and a resident of the Congressional District you are representing. You must attend the Delegation Meeting on Saturday, June 25, 2016 near LAX. You must commit to vote for the presidential candidate by whom you are selected."

In some cases Trump has either not found anyone or has not even submitted a list of prospective delegates. Note the last line " whom you are selected." If trump has not submitted the names then what does that wording mean?

Even rolling stone gets the implications. "It is exactly the kind of thing Trump -- back when he still had a rival for the nomination -- would have railed against as evidence the system is "rigged" against his bid. But it's not part of an establishment conspiracy to snatch the nomination from under him; it's just embarrassing proof that team Trump has failed to execute some of the most basic functions required of a competitive presidential campaign. " ... "Cruz was able to win the vast majority of the Washington delegates because, when his campaign still existed, staffers put together lists of their preferred delegates -- a state convention voters' guide. The Trump campaign (and the Kasich camp, for that matter) didn't perform this extremely basic task. "I never saw a slate for Trump candidates," Crabtree says."
           You dance with the guy that brung you.

Trump is conspicuously silent on this and it has happened in all of the west coast states. He either does not understand the process or is not intending to win but is taking that act all the way so as to leave Ted Cruz the only man standing. I still can't tell which. This failure to get delegates lined up, even after being called in by Reince Priebus for a lecture on the point, does not help Hillary Clinton it only helps Ted Cruz.

In the 12th district of California; Central San Francisco, Nancy Pelosi's district, Trump is allocated Peter Thiel a known libertarian and past Cruz supporter, House majority leader Kevin McCarthy, former House committee chairman Darrell Issa and congressman Duncan Hunter Jr. There is no way Trump came up with that list. They are bound but How can the RNC sanction a billionaire and two sitting congressmen for not voting their pledge?

Cruz may beat Trump without the pledged delegate question. California is "winner take most" the worst worded electoral jargon on planet earth. In reality the state is proportional but at the district level. The winner of each district takes all 3 delegates but if Cruz gets 14 districts Trump is blocked at 1236. Trump only got 60% in Oregon unopposed.

This map is useful it shows how California's districts votes. As Gary North says go and vote against the Tax and bond propositions (even anarchist got to the polls to vote against these things). This is one of the best indicators of political positions. Personalities and political popularity is not in play in such a vote. Proposition was a special tax to pay for education (teachers inflated pensions) in bankrupt California. It failed.,_2012#/media/File:CA2012Prop30-NoColor.svg

Yes Associated Press says Trump already has 1239 but they are assuming California is Winner take all and they are surveying unpledged delegates without saying who, what question they're asking and when they did the survey.

Some think that if Trump loses at the convention there will be a backlash with Trump supporters however that does not work out either. We have seen record turnout at the primaries but Trump has only got 30 to 40 % of the vote. That means that 60 - 70 % of that massive turn out was there to oppose him. It's bigger than the total November 2012 republican vote. The christian conservatives are activated. Only a percentage of Trump supporters will stay home.

The religious people supporting him tend to be new-age Pentecostals powered by dodgy prophesies. A prompt re-interpretation of the vision follows every such folly.

In other words people will vote this time around. If Cruz wins at the convention the huge collective sigh of relief will result in people that would not have supported him six months ago would support him. Even the View TV show that cut Trump off mid sentence would have Cruz gladly as a replacement. He has proved that he has the people and the organization for a campaign.

If the financial crisis hit Cruz's first term he will take it and use it to push through the reforms that are needed. Any one else would just take damage and make the crisis deeper. The anti-Cruz members of the republican party will not be able to attack the man that faced down Trump.

I don't expect to be believed. However if I am right you will be the one person in the room that will understand what just happened! God is in control. He needs no organizing committees to set things up. If I am right he is putting someone in place, a Goldwater republican, to take the coming crisis and turn them into reform.

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